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Market Analysis

How to Read Firearms Price Trends Before You Bid

EGO Arms EditorialMay 28, 20265 min read
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Walking into an auction without knowing what a firearm is worth is like walking into a car dealership without knowing the book value. You'll pay what you're told, not what it's worth. The good news: EGO Arms publishes real sale price data for free — no subscription, no paywall.

Here's how to actually use that data before you bid.

The 90-Day Average Is Your Baseline

The most useful number in the EGO Arms price guide is the 90-day average sale price by make, model, and condition. This strips out seasonal spikes and one-off deals, giving you a realistic "what does this gun actually sell for" number.

When an auction's current bid is significantly below the 90-day average, that's a buying opportunity — bidders haven't discovered it yet, or the auction ends at an off-peak time. When it's already above average, you need a real reason to keep bidding (original box, rare configuration, documented provenance) or it's time to let it go.

"The 90-day average is your ceiling, not your target. If you win below it, great. If the current bid has already blown past it with 18 hours left, the gun isn't underpriced — the bidders are overexcited."

How Condition Adjusts Price

Condition grades aren't cosmetic labels — they map directly to price. Here's the typical discount structure relative to "Excellent" condition:

Condition Grade Price Guide (% of Excellent price)
GradeTypical Price vs. ExcellentWhat it Means
New in Box+10–20%Unfired, original packaging, all paperwork
ExcellentBaseline (100%)Minimal wear, all original, fully functional
Very Good−10–20%Light handling wear, no functional issues
Good−25–35%Visible wear, holster marks, minor finish loss
Fair−40–55%Heavy wear, possible refinishing, still functional
Poor−60–70%+Parts gun territory, may need gunsmith work

Use this as a cross-check: if a "Good" condition pistol is bidding at 95% of the "Excellent" 90-day average, the bidders are being irrational — or the seller's photos aren't showing the full condition picture.

Seasonal Patterns That Move Prices

Firearm auction prices are not flat year-round. A few patterns repeat reliably:

The "Ending Time" Discount

Auctions that end between midnight and 6 AM on a weekday consistently close at 8–15% below comparable auctions that end Sunday evening. Fewer eyes on the final hour means less competition in the last-minute bidding. Set up watchlist alerts for auctions in your target category with inconvenient end times — they're often the best deals.

Check the EGO Arms free price guide before your next bid. It takes two minutes and can easily save you $100.

See what firearms in your target category are actually selling for — real sale data, no paywall.

Open the Free Price Guide →